Local Market Update

 

  • Late winter planting will be on hold as recent heavy rains have left many paddocks waterlogged and require a prolonged fine spell of weather before cultivation can continue. Seed companies still advise to be prompt with seed orders as to avoid logistical and supply problems further into spring.
  • The prolonged wet period has led to damage to dairy pastures as returning cows are pugging waterlogged paddocks. This could cause an increase in the requirement of feed supplements to offset the lower grass production.
  • Flour mills looking to source local product are having to import more than normal into the South Island to cover the season’s shortfall.
  • The PKE spot price is sitting around $400/t ex store, with farmers possibly able to contract forward at a lower price.
  • Increased interest from industry buyers has driven prices up rapidly over the last few weeks as they look to secure tonnage for the remainder of season.
  • There are several 2023 feed wheat offerings in the market, $565-$570/t delivered to Canterbury seeming to be standard, with barley options priced at around $20/t less.
  • Champion Flour Mills has opened its second sign up period for 2023 grain.
  • Malting Barley contracts appear to be priced at $605/t delivered to Mid Canterbury.

 

Ruralco is always looking for grain to supply a wide range of end users. If you have free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell, please contact the Ruralco Seed team. Drop in your sample at any Ruralco Store, contact your Ruralco Representative, or call the Ruralco Customer Service Centre on 0800 787 256 to arrange sample bags or pick up. For queries about free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell please contact the Ruralco Seed Team or request a call back below.

 

 

Request a Call back

 

 

Canterbury Growers Pricing Per Tonne*

 

Import Pricing Per Tonne*

*Pricing at 4 August 2022.

Meet Our Experts

 

John Scott

SEED SALES MANAGER

@: John.Scott@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 227 7048

 

Kate Waddell

SEED SALES CO-ORDINATOR

@: Kate.Waddell@Ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 238 9014

 

 

Craig Rodgers

GROUP MANAGER ON FARM SALES

@: Craig.Rodgers@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 495 2029

Australian Update

Feedgrain Focus: North drifts, south softens in thin trade

Source: Written by Liz Wells for Grains Central

While conditions remain excessively wet in parts of NSW and Queensland, crops in South Australia and Victoria are tracking well, and some are in need of a drink before the weather warms up.

Prices for feed wheat, barley and sorghum have moved little in the past week in northern markets, while southern wheat values have dropped by up to $20 per tonne in thin trade.

The reopening of the Blue Mountains line this week has allowed a backlog of containers carrying agricultural and other commodities to move from central NSW to Port Botany. The line has been open for 12 hours a day since Monday, and will be open around the clock from Saturday.

With the Hunter line to Newcastle and Gunning on the Melbourne-Sydney line also reopened, services have now resumed on all lines closed by rain-related incidents earlier this month.

 

 

Today

July 21

Barley Downs

$390

$390

SFW wheat Downs

$405

$410

Sorghum Downs

$350

$345

Barley Melbourne

$390

$390

ASW wheat Melbourne

$420

$440

SFW wheat Melbourne

$410

$425

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Inverse narrows

Riordan Grain Services manager Mark Lewis said current-crop values have fallen to the point where they have just about converged with new crop, and both are trading in limited volume.

“There’s not a lot of traction,” Mr Lewis said. “With the Northern Hemisphere harvest happening, and all the uncertainty around Ukraine, people are just executing what they’ve got. While barley in volume appears to be dwindling, traders say indications are that plenty of wheat is still warehoused or held on farm.

“It still feels like there’s a lot of wheat around. I would expect to see that start to come out to a bit of carry given there’s plenty of wheat around.”

At Young, Grain Focus broker Michael Jones said the southern NSW market has softened, and is down around $10-$15/t for wheat.

“Barley’s hard to place but wheat is going to port,” Mr Jones said. “The upcountry guys are covering for September; you’d be struggling to find August homes.”

Mr Jones said some growers were selling ahead parcels of around 50-100t., and SFW delivered Port Kembla has been traded this week at $410/t.

GeoCommodities Brad Knight said the Victorian market was “up and down like a yo-yo” based on global market perceptions about how likely Ukraine was to start exporting grain in the near term.

“Some of the bids are $10 either side of where you might think the market is,” Mr Knight said.

 

North takes a breather

A backlog of bulk and containerised grain going into Brisbane has slowed trade to a new level of quiet this week.

On the Liverpool Plains, Quest Commodities broker Chris Johnson said the market was “very sideways” in thin trade. “A lot of consumers have covered themselves for now, and the grower is sitting on their hands.”

This follows a fitful end to the cotton harvest and winter-crop planting, with some growers only completing their program in the past week or two with some late barley or durum.

Early winter crops in northern NSW and southern Queensland are expected to hit the bins in late September, and consumers are now seen as largely covered until then.

Recent trades delivered consumer on the Liverpool Plains include barley at $345/t, and SFW wheat at $400/t. One trade source said feedlots were hesitant to extend coverage as they are comfortable in the near term, and are concerned about biosecurity risks amid the threat of Foot and Mouth Disease arriving in Australia.

 

Cottonseed supply stabilises

Cheaper cottonseed ex gin prices emerged this week as supply from gins filled the gaps caused by the late start to the season, according to Woodside manager Hamish Steele Park.

“Ginning will likely push out till Oct/Nov this year in some valleys.

Container export demand continues to pay large premiums amid the complexity of logistic problems such as rail disruptions behind Sydney, shortage of trucks and shortage of packing space.

“Container values however have not fallen much and continue to quote about $545/t September 2022 delivered container terminal. The profile of demand in export markets affects what individual importers will pay. China export demand has backed off with the sell-off in global oilseed markets.

The China market is more sensitive to oilseed values as the majority is used in crush, while export markets like Japan and Korea have a higher feed grain component in their demand.”

Domestic feedlot buyers appear standing aside for the moment at the same time as supply from gins has become more assured tipping gin prices lower.

“Ex gin and delivered cottonseed values have eased over the past couple of weeks. Prices in northern NSW and Queensland were $5-10/t cheaper this week, ex Gwydir and Namoi Valley sites quoting about $310/t. Central NSW values were off $20/t this week, Macquarie Valley quoting $315/t from $335-340/t a week earlier. Riverina ex gin values, from $410/t a week ago, are now under $400/t”.

 

Feed Wheat Comparison

 

 

Feed Barley Comparison

 

World Market Update

Source: International Grains Council

HIGHLIGHTS

The forecast for global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2022/23 is trimmed by 3m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,252m, mainly to reflect drought stress in the EU, including for wheat, barley, and maize. Largely because of a revised feed use figure, the outlook for world consumption is also down by 3m t, leaving the projection for closing stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) unchanged from before. Due to an increased forecast for EU maize imports, the figure for trade (Jul/Jun) is 1m t higher m/m, at 406m.

Forecasts for soyabean supply and demand in 2021/22 are largely unchanged m/m. Chiefly reflecting downgraded US prospects, global output in 2022/23 is predicted 4m t lower m/m, at 386m, up by 10% y/y (year-on-year). With total use broadly unaltered m/m, carryovers are trimmed, albeit still much higher y/y. With expectations for China’s imports scaled back, trade is forecast 1m t lower, at 165m (+11m).

With the outlook for rice use in 2021/22 uprated slightly on an increased figure for Indian demand, inventories are trimmed by 1m t, to 180m (-2m y/y). Global output in 2022/23 is projected broadly steady m/m but, with consumption revised higher, carryovers are seen tighter than in June, at 179m t (-1m). The forecast for trade in 2023 is raised slightly, to a record of 52m t.

With all sub-components dropping m/m, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) slumped by 10%, to levels not seen since before the escalation of the Black Sea conflict.

OVERVIEW

Mainly due to projected declines in maize (-32m t y/y) and wheat (-11m), 2022/23 total grains production is forecast to fall by 2%, to 2,252m, potentially the first contraction in five seasons. Amid tighter supplies and anticipated elevated prices, total consumption could dip slightly on lower feed use, but with food and industrial uptake seen edging higher. After a small gain in the season before, carryover stocks are projected to tighten again, placed at an eight-year low of 583m t (-4%). Including y/y reductions for all major grains (except for oats), world trade is projected to recede by 4%, to 406m t.

With a plunge in South American production only partly offset by gains elsewhere, global soyabean output fell sharply in 2021/22, by 18m t y/y, with consumption and import demand also set to retreat. Linked to a sharp fall in exporters’ reserves, global inventories were significantly tighter. Tentatively assuming larger southern hemisphere harvests, 2022/23 world output is predicted at a record of 386m t (+10% y/y). A recovery in both uptake and trade is anticipated, led by gains in Asia, while carryovers could accumulate, including in key suppliers.

With sizeable harvests in Asian producers, world rice output reached a record in 2021/22, with total use advancing on expanded food uptake and trade remaining elevated on African demand. Further gains in production and uptake are anticipated in 2022/23, while inventories are expected to stay close to recent highs. Leaving aside a nominal figure for China, major exporters’ reserves are predicted at a new peak on accumulation in India. Trade is seen edging up to a high of 52m t.

With respect to pulses, 2022/23 world chickpeas use is seen increasing by 8% y/y, to new high, as a bigger global crop boosts availabilities, especially in India. Inventories are predicted to rise further, while trade is seen little-changed y/y. Total pulses trade in 2022 (Jan/Dec) is projected to edge lower, to 17.0m t (-2% y/y).

MARKET SUMMARY

Led by declines in maize and wheat, the IGC GOI dropped by 10% compared to the June GMR, to its lowest in more than five months.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index fell by a net 12%. While trading was occasionally volatile, losses stemmed from a seasonal increase in northern hemisphere supplies, spillover from external markets and speculation about the possible opening of Black Sea export corridors.

Weighed by seasonal weakness in South America and broader-based economic concerns, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index slumped by 13% m/m.

Amid generally weak demand and harvest pressure, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index declined by 1% m/m.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index was 9% lower overall, pressured mainly by losses in energy markets, slower overseas buying interest and growing recessionary threats.

 
 
 

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