Local Market Update

 

  • The wetter and cooler than normal conditions have led to a very difficult harvest, resulting in a larger than normal area of cereal still left to be harvested.

  • The pricing range is still fluid and will probably take a few more weeks to settle.

  • The poor harvest conditions could cause malting barley and milling wheat to fail quality tests, which may lead to them being moved into the feed market.

  • Although there is good cover on dairy platforms, there is potential for dairy farmers to feed additional supplements to push out the season and capitalise on the high pay out through additional production.

  • PKE is trading around $385/t ex store for spot purchases.

  • There looks to a significant cut to malting barley contracts for 2025 harvest.

  • Industry buyers remain conservative around 2025 grain pricing.

Ruralco is always looking for grain to supply a wide range of end users. If you have free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell, please contact the Ruralco Seed team. Drop your sample at any Ruralco Store, contact your Ruralco Representative, or call the Ruralco Customer Service Centre on 0800 787 256 to arrange sample bags or pick up. For queries about free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell please contact the Ruralco Seed Team or request a call back below.

Content updated as at 12 March 2025.

 

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Canterbury Growers Pricing Per Tonne*

*Nominal pricing, indicative only & subject to change.

 

Import Pricing Per Tonne*

*Pricing at 12 March 2025.

Meet Our Experts

 

John Scott

SEED SALES MANAGER

@: John.Scott@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 227 7048

 

Steve Lawson

Steve Lawson

ARABLE & PASTORAL REPRESENTATIVE

@: steve.lawson@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 245 5661

Australian Update

Feedgrain Focus: Sorghum lifts as cyclone nears Brisbane. Liz Wells, 6 March 2025. Source: Grain Central

The sorghum market has firmed in response to news that China is imposing a tariff on US sorghum, while wheat and barley price moves in the northern and southern markets have been mixed and moderate.

On the logistics front, Brisbane port facilities have closed ahead of Tropical Cyclone Alfred making landfall, now expected in the early hours of Saturday.

This has suspended bulk deliveries of sorghum, as well as container movements, with exporters hopeful receivals and vessel loading can resume next week.

On the domestic feed front, poultry operations in the wider Brisbane region are taking steps to shore up input and prepared feed supplies ahead of TC Alfred’s arrival.

Operations suspended at port sites

Poultry mills in particular rely on just-in-time supply of imported soymeal out-turned to consumers through Bulk Cargo Services at Pinkenba, near the mouth of the Brisbane River.

As a safety measure ahead of possible storm surges, flooding, and road closures, BCS is closed today and tomorrow, and consumers have sought alternative inputs or sources to tide them over.

On the bulk export front, three terminals are all due to start shipping sorghum cargoes this month, but have suspended deliveries until the TC Alfred system passes.

JSM Bulk Shipping managing director Joel Engelbrecht said the company’s two Pinkenba accumulation sites shut on Monday in order to get 20,000t of sorghum in two bunkers sealed with vacuum-fitted tarps.

JSM also has a site at Wellcamp, west of Toowoomba, which has 40,000t of sorghum on site, and shut yesterday.

“We’ve secured our sites, and shut to make sure our staff had time to get their own homes ready for what’s coming,” Mr Engelbrecht.

On the south side of the river, Wilmar’s QBT facility closed today to grain receivals, and is looking at reopening Monday, conditions permitting.

QBT general manager Brett Tomlinson said a wheat cargo was due to depart this week, but closure of the Port of Brisbane and adjacent facilities to large shipping, again because of safety concerns, has seen the vessel sail south to calmer waters to sit out the storm.

First new-crop sorghum vessels are due out of JSM, loading at the Wagner’s wharf, QBT, and GrainCorp’s Fisherman Islands, also closed today and tomorrow, in the second half of this month.

Bulk sites and feedmills are also standing by for any news on closure of the Gateway Bridge, the main artery to Brisbane’s bulk terminals, which will close once wind speed gets above 90kmh.

At Mt Cotton in Brisbane’ south, Darwalla Milling feeds manager Gary Heidenreich said its own mill, plus a contracted supplier at Clifton on the Darling Downs were working to get extra feed to Darwalla’s farms.

These are located on the Downs, and in the Lockyer and Fassifern valleys, ahead of expected rain and wind.

“It’s all about getting feed to farms so birds don’t run out of feed, and safety,” Mr Heidenreich said.

“There could be flooding, issues with farm access…and high winds that make it dangerous for tipping trailers.”

If the Gateway Bridge closes, grain movements can still be made, but with single-trailer trucks rather than A doubles.

As one of Australia’s biggest poultry producers, Ingham’s has two feedmills in the wider Brisbane region, one at Hemmant near the Brisbane River, and one at Wacol in the city’s outer west.

Both mills are operating today, but are likely to close some time tomorrow, with conditions assessed as required.

Tariff move lifts sorghum

Growers are ready sellers of sorghum at current prices, buoyed by the news that the Chinese Government has imposed retaliatory tariffs on some US commodities, including sorghum.

“Since China whacked a tariff on US sorghum, it’s given us a few bucks to play with,” one trader said.

Ahead of TC Alfred reaching the south-east Qld coast, the trader said consumers in the wider Brisbane region have been ready buyers of wheat and barley to bolster supply of what is shaping up to be three or four weather-affected days.

“If you ask them what price they’d like to buy at, they won’t tell you, but if you put something up there to buy, they’ll take it.”

Southern Queensland’s sorghum harvest is around two-thirds complete, and growers are getting off what they can ahead of rain forecast to arrive from the south as a TC Alfred turns into a tropical low.

Maximum moisture level at receival sites is 13.5 percent, and one trader said harvest is occurring at pace, even on crops at 16pc moisture.

“Growers can dry it themselves if they’ve got the gear, or get it dried elsewhere,” one trader said.

“What they don’t want to have is it sitting in the head with a heap of rain on it and ending up with sprouted grain,” one trader said.

Quality of sorghum harvested to date in Qld and northern New South Wales has been very good, with high test weights helping to boost yields to what for some growers has been their highest ever.

On wheat and barley, prompt trade is thin, with most consumers well covered into next quarter.

Slow going in south

Apart from some prompt demand from consumers, new business is hard to find in the southern market.

While volume heading off farm is expected to pick up in coming weeks as growers look to backload with fertiliser ahead of new-crop planting from April.

Peters Commodities Riverina-based trader Peter Gerhardy said growers are selling little.

“The grain they’ve lined up to take south is already pre sold for March or April delivery,” Mr Gerhardy said.

“There’s certainly not an abundance of grower selling.”

While most NSW and Qld growing areas are forecast to get a soaking in the coming week out of the low expected to develop out of TC Alfred, conditions remain very dry in Victoria and South Australia.

Mr Gerhardy said demand is starting to pop up for barley from people feeding sheep.

“That third-tier market is stepping in a bit.”

Mr Gerhardy said the spread between ASW and SFW had narrowed to single-digit figures.

“It’s only a matter of time before wheat’s wheat in Victoria; there’s only $5-$8/t in it now.”

Feed Wheat Comparison

 

 

Feed Barley Comparison

 

World Market Update

Source: International Grains Council, 20 February 2025

Highlights

The estimate of world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2024/25 is cut by 3m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,301m. The main change is for maize, tied to worsening South American prospects, but with a downgrade also for sorghum. Forecast global consumption is lowered modestly, to a still record 2,334m t. Cumulative ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are placed at 576m t, a little higher than before, but down by 5% y/y (year-on-year), driven by a contraction in the major exporters. World grains trade is forecast 1m t lower m/m, mainly reflecting cuts to China's sorghum and wheat import figures.

There are few changes to the Council's wheat projections for 2025/26, which include outlooks for increased output, consumption and trade, but another drawdown in stocks. Maize acreage is tentatively seen higher in the coming season, including a potential expansion in the main exporters. Barley plantings are forecast to rebound only modestly from the prior year's historical lows.

Reflecting reduced expectations for Argentina and Paraguay, world soyabean output in 2024/25 is seen 2m t down from before, at 418m (+5%). With total use uprated slightly, inventories are trimmed by 2m t m/m, but still a fresh peak. The outlook for trade is maintained at 180m t (+1%). In preliminary projections for 2025/26, global harvested area is pegged at a new high (+1%).

The 2024/25 global rice supply and demand balance sheet is little-changed from the January GMR, with record production, use and trade anticipated. Looking ahead to 2025/26, world acreage is tentatively seen edging higher, mainly on expanded sowings in Asia, including India. While state support will be important, the y/y drop in international values could cap the overall expansion.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) held steady compared to five weeks earlier. While average grains export quotations increased, rice and soyabeans prices were mostly in retreat.

Global 2024/25 total grains output is forecast 8m t below the previous year's peak, mainly due to a smaller maize crop. Consumption is forecast at a new high, led by gains in industrial use. At 576m t (-5%), closing stocks could be the tightest in a decade, with exporter inventories of 129m (-9%) the least in 11 years. Including steep declines in wheat and maize flows, world trade is projected to drop by 40m t, to 419m.

Tied to heavy crops in the US and Brazil, 2024/25 global soyabean output is predicted to expand by 5% y/y to a peak of 418m t. With gains spanning feed, food and industrial segments, record processing is anticipated, while inventories are pegged at a new high (+11%). Trade is projected to edge up (+1%), including sizeable shipments to key destinations. On a local MY (Feb/Jan) basis, Brazilian exports are seen rebounding, by about 11m t y/y.

Chiefly linked to bigger crops in key exporters, global rice output in 2024/25 is forecast 2% higher y/y at a new peak. Alongside record total use, inventories are predicted to accumulate, with stocks in the five majors exceeding 50m t for the first time. Trade in 2025 (Jan/Dec) is seen little-changed y/y, at about 57m t; while Indonesian purchases are set to plunge, those by China are likely to increase.

Against the backdrop of an improved global lentils harvest, total use could expand by 12% y/y in 2024/25, with a sizeable increase in stocks also foreseen. However, due to smaller shipments to South Asia, trade is predicted to contract by 3% y/y in 2025 (Jan/Dec). In the following year, a rebound in Australian production could boost world output.

MARKET SUMMARY

Amid offsetting changes across the constituent commodities, the IGC GOI held steady compared to the January GMR.

Amid ongoing concerns about 2025/26 winter crops in some northern hemisphere producers, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index gained by 4% m/m.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index advanced by 4%, underpinned partly by South American weather worries. US prices were also buoyed by sustained strong export demand.

Weighed by ample world availabilities and muted buying interest, the IGC GOI rice-sub Index slumped by 8%, dropping to a more than two-year low.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index eased by 1% m/m. There were mixed movements across major origin markets, with modest declines in the US and Argentina, but gains in Brazil.

 
 
 

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