Local Market Update

 

  • Cereal crops still looking very good, with recent rains coming at a good time for dryland crops, and in general growing conditions have been ideal. It appears the amount of barley sown appears to be well up on previous years mainly due to the lack of other crop options. (Reflected in the drop in certified crop area.)
  • The barley price has continued to rise on the back of good demand from the dairy industry while the wheat price has remained reasonably static over the same period. With barley appearing to become harder to source it will be interesting to see if dairy farmers shift usage over to the more abundant lower priced wheat.
  • PKE is trading around $335/t ex store for spot purchases.
  • Industry buyers remain conservative around 2025 grain forward grain pricing.

 

Ruralco is always looking for grain to supply a wide range of end users. If you have free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell, please contact the Ruralco Seed team. Drop your sample at any Ruralco Store, contact your Ruralco Representative, or call the Ruralco Customer Service Centre on 0800 787 256 to arrange sample bags or pick up. For queries about free or uncontracted grain that you would like to sell please contact the Ruralco Seed Team or request a call back below.

 

Content updated as at 19 November 2024.

 

Request a Call back

 

 

Canterbury Growers Pricing Per Tonne*

 

*Nominal pricing, indicative only & subject to change.

 

Import Pricing Per Tonne*

*Pricing at 16 October 2024.

Meet Our Experts

 

John Scott

SEED SALES MANAGER

@: John.Scott@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 227 7048

 

Steve Lawson

Steve Lawson

ARABLE & PASTORAL REPRESENTATIVE

@: steve.lawson@ruralco.co.nz
Ph: 027 245 5661

Australian Update

 

Feedgrain Focus: Northern trucks, trade busy with pulses

Liz Wells, 7 November 2024. Source: Grain Central

 

A big and fast-paced shipping program for chickpeas and faba beans is limiting the amount of feed wheat and barley being sold and executed in the northern market, where cereal values have eased in the past week.

In the south, the barley harvest is gathering pace, and a surprisingly large percentage of early crops are said to be making malting grades and the feed market’s favourite, BAR1.

The NSW wheat harvest is also ramping up, and early indications point to plenty of lower-protein deliveries, which has stockfeed millers confident of local supplies to fill their 2025 requirements.

Consumers are generally seen as adequately covered into February, with anticipation of the pulse task in the north, and lower-than-average yields in much of the south, prompting them to cover their Christmas-New Year needs some weeks ago.

The southern feed-type wheat and barley markets have therefore fallen,

 

Faba demand surprises

Faba beans have joined chickpeas as the most-traded commodity in the northern harvest slot.

With a number of faba and chickpea cargoes booked to load in coming weeks, plus container business, trade sources say trucks are being kept busy shuttling pulses to packers, accumulation points, and the ports of Brisbane and Newcastle.

AgVantage Commodities principal broker Steve Dalton said the flow-on effect to freight is supporting values for a number of commodities.

“I think we’re starting to see the market strengthen on the back of chickpeas,” Mr Dalton said.

“Growers are going to pay to get a truck, or the trade is going to pay up.”

Product needs to get to NSW or Qld ports by January in order to ensure being discharged in India ahead of its slated tariff-free cut-off in March.

“Because of the scarcity of trucks, and we knew this was going to happen, this year…the carriers are forcing growers more than ever before.

“Trucks are dictating to the farmer where they’ll go and what they’ll do; the grower doesn’t have a choice.”

With offshore demand strong for faba beans, and production in South Australia looking limited after its dry and frost-affected growing season, export demand from the north is strong.

“I’ve never seen as many faba bean buyers in the northern market.”

Prices for fabas are now at around $435/t delivered up-country site, up roughly $35/t in the past week or two, with growers keen to jump on the market while the export demand is there.

Mr Dalton said growers were selling chickpeas off the header, plus canola, faba beans, and “a little bit of wheat”.

Feedlots are generally well covered, with many using their own grain from the bumper harvest now at full tilt in southern Qld, or sourcing from neighbours who are regular suppliers.

Early reports from the northern NSW harvest are of some Hard and Prime Hard, and plenty of ASW and APW, with the latter two grades typical of the soft growing season.

 

South gets moving on barley

Reasonable volumes of barley are being harvested in northern Victoria, southern and central NSW, and South Australia.

According to MaltNews, as published by consultant Trevor Perryman and Riordan Grain Services,  most of the Qld and northern NSW barley harvest is in, and malting selection rates are reaching historic levels.

The usual split between malting and feed is expected in Victoria, and significantly low rates of selection are being reported in Western Australia, and presumably similar levels are being seen in South Australia.

MaltNews puts the national barley crop at 11.46 million tonnes (Mt).

“Although the total availability of Australian malting barley is forecast to be close to its average 3Mt, more than 70 percent of it will be in the eastern states.

“WA and SA, normally big exporters of malting barley, could either be short malting barley for domestic maltsters or have the grain in the wrong zones, as…seems to be the case in the Esperance region of WA.

“If the forecasts turn out to be correct, this will certainly disrupt the plans of many in the trade.”

That disruption could include SA and WA drawing malting from Vic and NSW, and feed barley from both states is already in demand in SA.

Early barley crops in the Vic-NSW border area are making BAR1, but some are showing lighter test weights and screenings, to reflect a dry season and/or frost damage.

“It might be that the better crops are the early ones,” one trader said.

Some early dryland barley crops from NSW-Vic border regions are yielding 3.5-4t/ha, with BAR1 being snapped up by local consumers who expect higher screenings and lighter test weights might become all too common as the Vic barley harvest gathers pace.

Canola and barley are the major crops being harvested in the southern half of NSW, and canola at around $770-$780/t delivered depot is the preferred cash crop.

Growers with malting barley to sell are enjoying its premium over feed, and growers generally are reticent to forward sell any of their crops due to concerns about the potential impact of frost and lack of moisture on quality.

Feed Wheat Comparison

 

 

Feed Barley Comparison

 

World Market Update

Source: International Grains Council

 

Highlights

Global 2024/25 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is forecast at 2,315m t. Localised dryness has slightly curbed wheat prospects in Australia and Argentina ahead of the main winter harvest period. Estimates for the EU and Russia are also trimmed but, with offsetting increases elsewhere, including in Kazakhstan (wheat) and Turkey (barley), the world crop estimate is unchanged m/m (month-on-month). Almost entirely tied to an uprated feed use figure, the projection for total consumption is up by 3m t from before, to 2,328m. Taking into account larger than previously estimated opening inventories, the figure for world carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is up by 3m t m/m, to 584m. The outlook for trade is cut by 2m t, to 419m, including smaller import figures for wheat (including for Turkey), maize (China) and barley (China, Iran).

Reflecting marginally upgraded expectations for South American producers, 2024/25 global soyabean output is projected 2m t higher than previously, at a new peak, up by 7% y/y (year-on-year). Together with a higher figure for carry-in inventories, projected aggregate end-season reserves are lifted by 4m t m/m. With increased outlooks for buyers in Africa and Asia, trade is predicted 1m t up from September (+1% y/y).

An increased estimate for production in 2023/24 lifts the figure for global rice stocks by around 2m t m/m (+1%). Expectations for trade in 2024 are raised by 1m t, to around 54m (+3%). Tied to an uprated outlook for India, 2024/25 world output is predicted 3m t higher m/m, at a peak of 531m (+2%), also feeding through to increased projections for consumption and inventories. Given an easing of Indian export restrictions, forecast world import demand in 2025 is raised by about 2m t m/m.

With mixed movements across the core commodities, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) dipped slightly m/m.

Despite an expected modest pullback in maize production, world total grains output is forecast to climb by 9m t, to a record 2,315m in 2024/25. Total grains supply is seen fractionally lower y/y because of tighter opening stocks. Global consumption is also forecast at a new peak, placed 11m t higher y/y, at 2,328m, with the strongest gains in food and industrial uses. End-season stocks are set to contract by 12m t y/y, to 584m, a 10-season low. The fall stems from a 7m t reduction in maize and a 6m drop in wheat inventories, partially offset by a 1m gain in other coarse grains (notably oats and sorghum). Global trade is expected to fall by 36m t from last year’s high, to 419m, led by declines for wheat and maize.

Tied to expectations for heavy crops in key producers, the 2024/25 global soyabean outturn is predicted to be the largest on record and 7% higher y/y. With growing demand from feed, food and industrial sectors set to sustain an uptrend in processing, world utilisation is seen advancing by 5%, with aggregate inventories also reaching a high. Trade is anticipated to edge up to a peak of 179m t (+1%), including another season of above-average deliveries to China. On the exporter side, the US and Brazil are set to dispatch more.

Building on the prior year's gains, world rice production is predicted to expand by 8m t y/y, to a record of 531m, in 2024/25, chiefly on gains in leading exporters. Boosted by expanded food use, uptake is seen rising to a new peak, while stocks are set to accumulate, chiefly in major suppliers. World import demand could reach a high in 2025 on stronger African demand, with Indian dispatches potentially moving above 20m t owing to looser restrictions on non-basmati white rice trade.

Global dry peas output is seen expanding for the third consecutive year (+3%) as bigger harvests in Canada and the EU more than compensate for a smaller Russian outturn. Given a boost to availabilities, total utilisation could advance further, but with stocks likely to tighten (-6%) despite gains in leading exporters. After rising solidly in the past two years, trade is likely to contract by 12% y/y in 2025, linked to a marked drop in Indian demand.

 

Market Summary

The IGC GOI weakened slightly over the past month, as softer rice and soyabean export quotations more than compensated for firmer grains prices.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index gained by 2% in the four weeks since the September report, mainly on strength in Black Sea fob values, as Russia introduced various export measures.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index rose by 3% overall. There were mixed movements across the leading origins, with slow producer selling contributing to gains in South America and Ukraine.

Against the backdrop of India's relaxation of export restrictions on non-basmati white varieties, the IGC GOI rice-sub Index fell sharply, dropping by 7% m/m.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index weakened by a net 3% on an increasingly bearish fundamental backdrop.

 
 
 

Account Selector